Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the current situation. They composes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
