Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are released from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
