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Just two days before the NYC mayoral election, political analyst Michael Lange made a significant electoral prediction – not just the winner citywide, and precinct by precinct. The analyst, an expert in elections who grew up in the city, has spent more than ten years in progressive politics and has become a kind of well-known figure recently for his deep dives into municipal statistics and voter surveys.

He released his extremely precise prediction map – which correctly forecast that the progressive candidate was victorious while missing the independent candidate’s strong performance – on his newsletter, the Narrative War. Lange has a flair for witty coinages. He pointed out, for instance, the split between the “commie corridor”, stretching from Park Slope to Bushwick to Astoria, where he forecasted (correctly) that the left-wing candidate would triumph by large leads, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. In those areas, certain media outlets and financial newspapers outrank the mainstream paper” in audience and the majority of electors favored the independent, who ran as a moderate alternative.

Election Night Patterns and Surprises

How was your election night?

I had to do that since they were adding approximately 200K ballots into the system frequently! I was actually somewhat anxious initially: Mamdani was ahead the early vote by a dozen percentage points, but there were two big batches of ballots added later and the advantage dropped from 12% to 8%. I was worried.

You know, there was a world where election day turned out kind of poorly for Mamdani, in which the opponent would have essentially doubling his votes from the Democratic primary. However the winner added 500,000 votes to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He went out and greatly broadened his base from the first round.

Coalition Building

Where did Mamdani gain additional support from?

He assembled the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: diverse racially, youthful, tenants and it’s people facing cost pressures. He improved significantly with Black and Hispanic voters, working- and middle-class voters, compared to the earlier election. Plus he further maximized his base of liberal progressives, youthful radicals, and Muslims and south Asians. He couldn’t have won without expanding his appeal.

He built the alliance that the left long aimed for: multiracial, youthful, renters and people struggling with costs

Additionally, there were some Trump/Mamdani voters – is this significant?

It’s definitely a real thing, confined to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Muslims. Electors in immigrant strongholds that went for Trump last year went for Zohran this year. However it’s not that he was winning over Caucasian laborers and Trump loyalists.

Turnout and Impact

A major development of the election was the record turnout. Who did that help?

Both sides. Participation was much greater than anticipated. I thought it could exceed two million, but it’s closer to 2.3M – which is a lot of darn voters. There was a substantial opposition group, energized, but the Mamdani base was equally driven, and that sufficed to win.

You forecasted he’d get over half the ballots. Is he on course for that?

Currently it appears he’s favored to get over half. He’s at just over 50% but remain probably 200K ballots uncounted at that time. So it’s not certain, but I think probable, and I wish he achieves it so afterwards none can claim the Republican was a disruptor.

Republican Collapse

The GOP candidate, the Republican candidate, is the other big story. His vote plummeted.

He lost any district in any borough. Not even one neighborhood in Staten Island, similar to an highly conservative area. That truly surprised me. Cuomo kept very white areas, very wealthy areas and devout communities, and plus gained many Republicans on the island who had a high participation. I believe occurred a lot of strategic balloting by GOP voters. This happened prior to the former president tweeted his support for the candidate, but it assisted. It could have even turned the tide unless Mamdani’s coalition failed to expand.

Progressive Strongholds

What about your often-discussed left-wing base – did backing for the candidate overwhelming in those parts of the boroughs?

In my view existed a little dilution of the progressive zone in certain places like neighborhoods that have more older white ethnic folks. There, instance, the Greek landlords and homeowners all went for Cuomo. Thus there was a little resistance. But overall, mostly the commie corridor is a key factor why Zohran prevailed – he was polling between 77% and 83% in specific neighborhoods.

Community Support

In the lead-up to the election we reported on if the candidate was gaining ground with Jewish New Yorkers. Is there any suggestion that he did?

Exist neighborhoods with many secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – such as specific locales – where he performed strongly. But in the wealthy Jewish communities such as the Upper East Side, his position on Israel definitely mattered in those places. Likewise in the more middle-class Jewish areas including Queens neighborhoods, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they favored Cuomo. Plus, there are Jewish immigrants from the former Soviet Union in southern Brooklyn, who were pretty staunchly supportive. Therefore I don’t know if there were crazy narrative-busters on this one, but Mamdani retained left-leaning areas and including sections of the Upper West Side with large leads.

Political Impact

Has Mamdani rewritten what the city represents in politics? Will progressive base serve as a springboard for progressive contenders?

Absolutely, it’s no coincidence that key figures from progressives hail from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that there will be additional examples – candidates will emerge from these neighborhoods to be promoted to higher office.

However I believe that each urban center in America could develop their own commie corridor. Cities are the epicenters of leftwing power in the nation – since they’re young, people rent and they are places where individuals struggle by the disparities we face.