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For a brief period, the former US president seemed to embrace a resolute stance on Ukraine. After issuing warnings of "severe repercussions" last August in case Putin continued hindering peace negotiations, Trump ultimately enacted major restrictions on the Russian two largest energy firms, Rosneft and Lukoil. This action significantly hindered Putin's capability to finance his aggression in Ukraine.

Yet, through his newly presented comprehensive peace initiative for the conflict, that was developed by both nations' diplomats lacking Ukrainian or European involvement, he has clearly returned to his favorable to Russia approach.

Favoring Military Action

This initiative would in practice benefit Putin for invading a sovereign nation while placing Ukraine's democracy in peril. Although bold declarations that "Ukraine's sovereignty will be affirmed", much of the plan actually undermine that same independence. This constitutes a Kremlin dream would probably be a disaster for Ukraine.

Reflecting his business experience, the former president continues to treat the Ukrainian conflict as a simple territorial dispute, implying ceding Russia a portion of Ukrainian land will appease the president. But, Putin's war is not only about occupying a destroyed region of industrial-devastated territory in eastern Ukraine. It is about Ukraine's democratic governance – and the Russian leader's clear intention to weaken it so it ceases to functions as an appealing standard for the Russian people of the democratic government that Putin's growing dictatorship denies them.

Territorial Concessions

While keeping in position the currently divided Ukrainian provinces of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Trump's plan would compel Ukraine to give up the entire this eastern territory. Aside from rewarding the Russian Federation with area that its troops have been unable to capture in more than a lengthy period of warfare, this surrender would render Ukraine's military defenses critically weakened.

The area is the place of Ukraine's well-known "fortress belt", the fortified protective structures that represent a critical barrier to invading forces. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military abandon these defenses, giving Putin a unobstructed route to the capital in case he eventually decide to resume the war.

Armed Forces Limitations

Then, in a action that would make future fighting simpler for the Russian military, the plan would mandate Ukraine to diminish the size of its military from their existing large number soldiers to a limit of 600,000. Significantly, Trump's proposal places no similar restrictions on the invading army.

Apparently as a concession to Putin's efforts to portray the nation's legitimate administration as radicals, Trump's plan asserts: "Any extremist ideology and practices must be rejected and prohibited." Apparently to emphasize this aspect, it insists that "The nation will hold democratic votes in 100 days" of a truce. At the same time, Trump sets no requirement that Putin jeopardize his regime by holding democratic processes in Russia.

Protection Guarantees

To be sure, the initiative has the Russian Federation commit not to "invade bordering nations" and to "establish in legislation its stance of non-violence towards the EU and Ukraine". Yet taking into account that the Russian leadership has breached similar agreements in the history – such as the 1994 agreement, in which Russia committed to respect Ukraine's borders in return for giving up its historical nuclear arsenal, and the previous peace deals, in which Russia agreed to a ceasefire and a restoration of captured territory in the region to Kyiv – why should the international community believe Russia on this occasion?

This explains the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on western security guarantees. Although the initiative warns of a "strong unified defense action" if the Russian Federation resume its aggression, and states that "Ukraine will receive dependable protection assurances", the particulars range from unclear to concerning. The proposal would not just deny the nation Nato membership but also preclude member states from positioning military personnel on the nation's land, thereby precluding the reassurance force, likely commanded by European powers, on which the Ukrainian government had been relying to prevent Putin from rebuilding his weakened military, rearming, and resuming aggression.

Global Concern

An additional parallel deal according to sources would offer the nation with a alliance-like defense commitment, in which any later "serious, intentional, and continuous aggression" by the Russian Federation on the country "shall be regarded as an act of war threatening the tranquility of the transatlantic community." This implies a armed reaction. However in contrast to a capable Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's most reliable defense against additional invasion – the credibility of the side agreement would rely on the willingness of alliance members, including Trump, to respond with force to Putin's attacks, something they have {not